NFL ATS Picks & More Week 4 2010

WEEK 4

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Week 2: 2-2

Week 3: 3-1

Total: 6-3

Week 4 Picks

Indianapolis -7.5 at Jacksonville

Other week 4 betting thoughts

There are three more ‘out of range’ picks this week and although they cannot be officially recommended because they don’t have the same positive historical track record I actually like all three so I think a small three team parley might be fun and have slightly less of a chance of being a total waste then normal: Chicago +4 at Giants, Atlanta -7 vs. San Fran & Pittsburgh -1 vs. Baltimore. Another quick thought, I am all for people getting it all wrong, that is after all the reason Mac Daddy is able to find value, but can we all please stop saying Baltimore has a great run defense, they have given up 383rush yards this year, only 63 less than the team that has given up the most in the league and 264 more than the team that has given up the least. 

NFL ATS Picks & More Week 3 2010

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Week 2: 2-2

Total: 3-2

It looks like Mac Daddy must have had a little too much fun last year as his early season buzz seems to have lingered into week 3. Mac Daddy once again has four picks plus two out of range. One out of range pick for week 3 is Houston -3 at home vs Dallas. If Chicago is who we thought they were than then Dallas must really suck which means Houston should kill them. The second is Kansas City +2.5 at home vs. San Fran. As you will see in the picks below Mac Daddy thinks Monday nights almost win can be more explained by NO being overrated than SF underrated. Then again maybe he is just mad at them for losing the cover on that late game tying drive by SF.

Week 3 Picks

Atlanta +4 at New Orleans

Denver +6 at home vs. Indy

Cleveland +10.5 at Baltimore

Buffalo +14 at New England

Nuggets

Mac Daddy considers NO and KC as the worst two 2 win teams at 15^th and 17^th overall, and Minnesota and Cleveland the best No win teams at 13^th and 22^nd overall.  Indy, Atlanta and the Jets are considered the best 1 win teams, and Oakland, Arizona & Jacksonville are considered the worst.

NFL ATS Picks & More Week 2 2010

Week 2 is generally Mac Daddy’s most rebellious week. In fact this year there are two picks that are so far off from the actual spreads that they have to be thrown out because they are out of the optimal range. I am not sure I even want to mention what they are because it may unduly influence your opinion of him.

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Total: 1-0

Week 2 Picks

NY Giants +5.5 at Indy

Detroit +4 at home vs. Philadelphia

Saint Louis +4 at Oakland

New Orleans -5 at San Francisco

As for those picks I said I didn’t want to mention...

One of them is for a team led by a QB who a guy in my fantasy league drafted about 15 rounds early in 2008 but who had a big week in week 1 2010 to beat a team that had a disappointing loss last week on Monday Night that isn’t the Jets.

The other has a team with a new coach and a bunch of average running backs that is not Buffalo over a team led by Kyle Orton - big.

NFL ATS Picks Week 1 2010

WEEK 1

One pick this week; Pittsburgh +2.5 at home vs. Atlanta. The first week is always a bit more of a guessing game than usual. I guess Mac Daddy likes Dennis Dixon?!?!

In straight up action there are no gimmies in week 1. Mac Daddy’s top straight up pick this week is Chicago which I suggest you take in your one and done pools because the only way they will even be in the conversation again is if you are discussing the teams most likely to lose. The largest underdogs Mac Daddy predicts to win are Phili and Buffalo who are both +3.