Week 17

Mac Daddy recommends taking a hiatus in Week 17 due to too many conflicting incentives. For more analysis see Mac Daddy’s post at IQ chart:

http://iqcharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/diversion-of-week-nfl-handicapping-week.html

Mac Daddy will continue to enter his picks for the playoffs but will do so with low confidence. It is the regular season that matters which in now in the books.

It started with a bang but ended up mediocre, but if mediocre is what you get in a bad year that ain't so bad. The year finished 14-13. Although over .500, this is a losing record from a gamblers perspective, which is the rub after all. Not only do you have to be over .500 but you have to be so by enough to cover the juice.  That is the bad news. The good news is that Mac Daddy recently revamped the system in a way which he believes will improve the performance over the long term and that system would have finished under .500.

If you want to have some fun in Week 17 I recommend staying in on new years and using the money you saved to buy something to entertain yourself, oh, and maybe a small parley on Seattle +3 and Green Bay -10. Seriously…. small.

Also, for some non-NFL related entertainment feel free to check out mac daddy's pga tour fantasy golf post:

http://iqcharts.blogspot.com/2010/12/diversion-of-week-pga-tour-fantasy-golf.html

Week 16

Record: 13-13

Week 16 Pick: Minnesota +14.5 at Phili

NFL ATS Picks Week 14, 2010

Record: 13-12

Week 14 Picks:
St Louis +9 at New Orleans

NFL ATS Picks Week 12, 2010

Record: 13-9

Week 12 Picks:
Baltimore -7.5 at home vs. Tampa Bay
Washington -1 at Minnesota
Tennessee +6.5 at Houston

Thanksgiving:
Mac Daddy likes but not loves Detroit, Dallas, Jets

NFL ATS Picks Week 11, 2010

RECORD:  13-7

WEEK 11 Picks: 

Seattle +11.5 at Saints
Detroit +6.5 at Dallas

NFL ATS Picks Week 10, 2010

Record:  11-7

Week 10 Picks: 


Chicago +1.5 at  home vs. Minnesota: The vikings may have won last week but they still had to come back 14 points late against Arizona. Chicago may have barely won but they did it against the best 0-8 team ever.


Detroit +3 at Buffalo: The best 0-8 team ever is about to become the best 0-9 team ever. Detroit will not miss Stafford. They have been doing it without him all year, and by doing it I mean losing a lot but looking pretty good at it. These two teams are really meant for each other, do you think they can both lose?

Other:
I am kind of liking Cleveland +3 at home vs. the Jets as well, but just in case it was New England who just isn't that good, you could hedge that with a little action on Pittsburgh -4.5. Mac Daddy says don't listen to me and just stick to his picks. My online account agrees.

NFL ATS Picks Week 9, 2010

Record: 10-7

Week 9 Picks: DETROIT +4 vs. NY Jets

Detroit is actually rated an above average team by Mac Daddy and has been nearly the whole season. Last week Mac Daddy gave me a private tip to bet them to win the Super Bowl which I did at 1,000:1 odds - seriously. It is down to 150:1 this week already. Very strange. I have never heard of anyone winning a 1,000:1 shot so they are now my new favorite team until the coach of my favorite team gets fired at which point they will move to number 2.

NFL ATS Picks Week 8, 2010

Record: 10-6

Week 8 Pick: Pittsburgh PK at New Orleans

Other suggestions: Tennessee +3.5 at San Diego: Tennessee is Mac Daddy's #1 ranked team in the NFL. Pittsburgh is #2. New Orleans and San Diego on the other hand, not good.

NFL ATS Picks Week 7, 2010

Record: 9-6

Picks:
New England +3 at San Diego

Mac Daddy says he just doesn't think that San Diego can withstand the possible loss of one of their best players, Nate Kaeding.

NFL ATS Picks Week 6, 2010

Record: 7-5

Week 6 Picks
Kansas City +4.5 at Houston
St. Louis +8.5 at home vs. San Diego
Oakland +6.5 at San Francisco

Others I like but feel better staying away from: Detroit +10 at Giants, Tampa Bay +4.5 at home vs NO.

NFL ATS Picks & More Week 5 2010

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Week 2: 2-2

Week 3: 3-1

Week 4: 0-1

Total: 6-4

Week 5 Picks

Kansas City +8.5 at Indianapolis

NY Jets -4 at home vs. Minnesota

… & More

Mac Daddy has finally settled into the season, this week there are two official picks and no out of line non-picks, which are obviously out of line for a reason. I am not sure I like this week’s picks, but I think that bodes well for them. After all, I am a thinking man and Mac Daddy is a mindless machine and my experience tells me that thinking men are not very good sports bettors, especially those who think that statement does not apply to them.

Indianapolis may not be that bad even though they lost to Jacksonville, come on Indy really, you lost to Jacksonville, anyway, KC may just be pretty decent themselves. If that is the case 8.5 should be comfortably coverable. Minnesota is not that bad especially with the addition of Randy Moss, however, the Jets might just be that good and they are playing at home. What the hell, take them both, I will give Mac Daddy a beating on your behalf if they both lose. 

NFL ATS Picks & More Week 4 2010

WEEK 4

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Week 2: 2-2

Week 3: 3-1

Total: 6-3

Week 4 Picks

Indianapolis -7.5 at Jacksonville

Other week 4 betting thoughts

There are three more ‘out of range’ picks this week and although they cannot be officially recommended because they don’t have the same positive historical track record I actually like all three so I think a small three team parley might be fun and have slightly less of a chance of being a total waste then normal: Chicago +4 at Giants, Atlanta -7 vs. San Fran & Pittsburgh -1 vs. Baltimore. Another quick thought, I am all for people getting it all wrong, that is after all the reason Mac Daddy is able to find value, but can we all please stop saying Baltimore has a great run defense, they have given up 383rush yards this year, only 63 less than the team that has given up the most in the league and 264 more than the team that has given up the least. 

NFL ATS Picks & More Week 3 2010

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Week 2: 2-2

Total: 3-2

It looks like Mac Daddy must have had a little too much fun last year as his early season buzz seems to have lingered into week 3. Mac Daddy once again has four picks plus two out of range. One out of range pick for week 3 is Houston -3 at home vs Dallas. If Chicago is who we thought they were than then Dallas must really suck which means Houston should kill them. The second is Kansas City +2.5 at home vs. San Fran. As you will see in the picks below Mac Daddy thinks Monday nights almost win can be more explained by NO being overrated than SF underrated. Then again maybe he is just mad at them for losing the cover on that late game tying drive by SF.

Week 3 Picks

Atlanta +4 at New Orleans

Denver +6 at home vs. Indy

Cleveland +10.5 at Baltimore

Buffalo +14 at New England

Nuggets

Mac Daddy considers NO and KC as the worst two 2 win teams at 15^th and 17^th overall, and Minnesota and Cleveland the best No win teams at 13^th and 22^nd overall.  Indy, Atlanta and the Jets are considered the best 1 win teams, and Oakland, Arizona & Jacksonville are considered the worst.

NFL ATS Picks & More Week 2 2010

Week 2 is generally Mac Daddy’s most rebellious week. In fact this year there are two picks that are so far off from the actual spreads that they have to be thrown out because they are out of the optimal range. I am not sure I even want to mention what they are because it may unduly influence your opinion of him.

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Total: 1-0

Week 2 Picks

NY Giants +5.5 at Indy

Detroit +4 at home vs. Philadelphia

Saint Louis +4 at Oakland

New Orleans -5 at San Francisco

As for those picks I said I didn’t want to mention...

One of them is for a team led by a QB who a guy in my fantasy league drafted about 15 rounds early in 2008 but who had a big week in week 1 2010 to beat a team that had a disappointing loss last week on Monday Night that isn’t the Jets.

The other has a team with a new coach and a bunch of average running backs that is not Buffalo over a team led by Kyle Orton - big.

NFL ATS Picks Week 1 2010

WEEK 1

One pick this week; Pittsburgh +2.5 at home vs. Atlanta. The first week is always a bit more of a guessing game than usual. I guess Mac Daddy likes Dennis Dixon?!?!

In straight up action there are no gimmies in week 1. Mac Daddy’s top straight up pick this week is Chicago which I suggest you take in your one and done pools because the only way they will even be in the conversation again is if you are discussing the teams most likely to lose. The largest underdogs Mac Daddy predicts to win are Phili and Buffalo who are both +3. 

NFL 2010 Season Preview

Some improvements were made to Mac Daddy in the middle of 2009 that will continue to make weekly team ratings more accurate thus improving the probability of positive weekly outcomes. Essentially the improvements involved eliminating some clutter include weekly turnover ratio, which was no longer considered a useful predictor variable and changing to a hybrid of two methodologies tested over the past 11 years.

The first method was the original method starting in1999 which takes a base rating based on the prior year results and modifies it slightly each week based on the previous weeks results. It is essentially a weighted average weekly rating.

The second method uses only a teams total average weekly differential and the teams strength of schedule to determine their rating for the upcoming week, similar to sagarin ratings. The strength of schedule takes into consideration the home field advantage in every game and is adjusted weekly. The method is more accurate as the amount of information going into each teams strength of schedule increases.

The two systems provide a good counterbalancing effect which when applied back to 2006 resulted in an average annual ATS winning percentage in all games of 51.5% with a narrow range of 51% (2006) and 53% (2009). In 5 star picks ATS the average winning percentage is 60% with a low of 52% (2006) and a high of 66% (2007). On average there are 36 - 5 star picks per year. The average straight up pick percentage for all games is 63% with a low of 57% (2006) and a high of 68% (2007).

Based on the base 2010 rating Mac Daddy recommends the following teams as good value bets to win the super bowl. They are a few of many handpicked by Mac Daddy from those which he determined to have a positive net present value based on his estimated odds of each winning the super bowl:

Indianapolis 7-1

Arizona 60-1

Jacksonville 100-1

Stay tuned for all this years 5 star picks and occasionally other information that seems interesting based on each teams weekly ratings and strength of schedule. Picks will generally be posted each Wednesday during the regular season and playoffs. 

SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS - February 7, 2010

Mac Daddy's Super Bowl Prediction
Indianapolis 31 - New Orleans 23

Mac Daddy of course relies strictly on the numbers which in this case only slightly favor Indy. Based on Mac Daddy’s past performance in any given game over the past 10 years this means Indy has about a 51.5% chance of covering. Therefore he was waiting for some sort of inspiration which would allow him to state a pick with confidence and fervor, and today he realized that time would never come and the Super Bowl was only two days away so he better just make a prediction and stick to it. How about that pitch for Indy? Don’t hurt yourself rushing out to go make your bet. Unfortunately that is just the way it goes, although the Super Bowl is the biggest game of the year it is only one game and if the line isn’t being moved into an unreasonable position there may not be much value in it. If you want a strong opinion, then here you go. I am very confident that the majority of the following topics will be mentioned at your Super Bowl party.

• Go Daddy
• Kim Kardashian
• Archie Manning
• Wednesdays episode of Lost
• The seven layer dip
• The Who
• Light beer vs. dark beer
• The length of the halftime show
• The original Super Bowl Shuffle
• Mike Ditka
• Hurricane Katrina
• Brad Pitt
• Harry Connick Jr.
• Debate as to the best show between 30 Rock, The Office, Community or Parks & Recreation
• Janet Jackson
• And for a long shot..... Turducken

Conference Championships 2009/2010

Mac Daddy likes but not loves both Minnesota and the Jets to cover. Minnesota has a good chance to win and a Jets victory is not completely improbable either the way that defense is playing. As far as the most intriguing matchup I like Minnesota and the Jets given the fact that Favre played on the Jets just last year (remember that), given that winner would either have the oldest or youngest QB to ever win a Super Bowl, given that I followed Mac Daddy's instructions to bet on both of them to win it all, and given that I want to Colts to pay for resting their players and might somewhat enjoy seeing Manning whine. The good thing is that there is no least intriguing matchup, Brees, Manning, Favre, and the Jets Defense would all make good story lines and make for an exciting Super Bowl.

Divisional Playoff Picks 2009-2010

ATS in the Divisional Playoffs Mac Daddy likes New Orleans, Baltimore, Dallas & NY Jets, all with moderate confidence. In addition to who goes on to the next round this weeks games will determine; if New Orleans is in a slump or just came back down to earth, if Warner is truly capable of turning it off and on as they say or if they just had a good offense week vs Green Bay, if Indy is dumb for not looking at their own history to see that they should not rest players or I am dumb for thinking they are, if Baltimore is truly a complete team, who will will the Super Bowl, Dallas or Minnesota, and how many point San Diego can put up on the leagues best defense.

Belated Wild Card Picks Post

This is a day late, but here were the final rankings going into this week.

Team, Rating
New England, 26.77
Dallas, 26.62
Indianapolis, 24.65
New Orleans, 24.37
Minnesota, 24.27
San Diego, 24.18
Green Bay, 23.98
Baltimore, 23.95
NY Jets, 23.00
Arizona, 21.16
Philadelphia, 20.98
Cincinnati, 20.83

As you can see the worst two teams in the playoffs were eliminated yesterday and Mac Daddy's picks to go to the Super Bowl are New England and Dallas. However, the rating doesn't take into consideration the injury to Welker, so depending on how that affects NE, Indy could take their place. Today Mac Daddy likes GB and NE. The Jets are only rated 23, but their defense has been playing great resulting in a lot of hype causing the odds to win the Super Bowl to go from 50-1 to open the week to 30-1 before the start of the Cinci game. Mac Daddy meant to take it at 50-1 and still took it after it fell to 30-1. The best teams to miss the playoffs follow, all of which were considered better than Cincinnati, Philadephia, and Arizona:

Team, Rating
Atlanta, 24.86
San Francisco, 22.77
Carolina, 22.53
Pittsburgh, 22.31
Houston, 21.82