NFL ATS Picks & More Week 4 2010

WEEK 4

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Week 2: 2-2

Week 3: 3-1

Total: 6-3

Week 4 Picks

Indianapolis -7.5 at Jacksonville

Other week 4 betting thoughts

There are three more ‘out of range’ picks this week and although they cannot be officially recommended because they don’t have the same positive historical track record I actually like all three so I think a small three team parley might be fun and have slightly less of a chance of being a total waste then normal: Chicago +4 at Giants, Atlanta -7 vs. San Fran & Pittsburgh -1 vs. Baltimore. Another quick thought, I am all for people getting it all wrong, that is after all the reason Mac Daddy is able to find value, but can we all please stop saying Baltimore has a great run defense, they have given up 383rush yards this year, only 63 less than the team that has given up the most in the league and 264 more than the team that has given up the least. 

NFL ATS Picks & More Week 3 2010

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Week 2: 2-2

Total: 3-2

It looks like Mac Daddy must have had a little too much fun last year as his early season buzz seems to have lingered into week 3. Mac Daddy once again has four picks plus two out of range. One out of range pick for week 3 is Houston -3 at home vs Dallas. If Chicago is who we thought they were than then Dallas must really suck which means Houston should kill them. The second is Kansas City +2.5 at home vs. San Fran. As you will see in the picks below Mac Daddy thinks Monday nights almost win can be more explained by NO being overrated than SF underrated. Then again maybe he is just mad at them for losing the cover on that late game tying drive by SF.

Week 3 Picks

Atlanta +4 at New Orleans

Denver +6 at home vs. Indy

Cleveland +10.5 at Baltimore

Buffalo +14 at New England

Nuggets

Mac Daddy considers NO and KC as the worst two 2 win teams at 15^th and 17^th overall, and Minnesota and Cleveland the best No win teams at 13^th and 22^nd overall.  Indy, Atlanta and the Jets are considered the best 1 win teams, and Oakland, Arizona & Jacksonville are considered the worst.

NFL ATS Picks & More Week 2 2010

Week 2 is generally Mac Daddy’s most rebellious week. In fact this year there are two picks that are so far off from the actual spreads that they have to be thrown out because they are out of the optimal range. I am not sure I even want to mention what they are because it may unduly influence your opinion of him.

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Total: 1-0

Week 2 Picks

NY Giants +5.5 at Indy

Detroit +4 at home vs. Philadelphia

Saint Louis +4 at Oakland

New Orleans -5 at San Francisco

As for those picks I said I didn’t want to mention...

One of them is for a team led by a QB who a guy in my fantasy league drafted about 15 rounds early in 2008 but who had a big week in week 1 2010 to beat a team that had a disappointing loss last week on Monday Night that isn’t the Jets.

The other has a team with a new coach and a bunch of average running backs that is not Buffalo over a team led by Kyle Orton - big.

NFL ATS Picks Week 1 2010

WEEK 1

One pick this week; Pittsburgh +2.5 at home vs. Atlanta. The first week is always a bit more of a guessing game than usual. I guess Mac Daddy likes Dennis Dixon?!?!

In straight up action there are no gimmies in week 1. Mac Daddy’s top straight up pick this week is Chicago which I suggest you take in your one and done pools because the only way they will even be in the conversation again is if you are discussing the teams most likely to lose. The largest underdogs Mac Daddy predicts to win are Phili and Buffalo who are both +3. 

NFL 2010 Season Preview

Some improvements were made to Mac Daddy in the middle of 2009 that will continue to make weekly team ratings more accurate thus improving the probability of positive weekly outcomes. Essentially the improvements involved eliminating some clutter include weekly turnover ratio, which was no longer considered a useful predictor variable and changing to a hybrid of two methodologies tested over the past 11 years.

The first method was the original method starting in1999 which takes a base rating based on the prior year results and modifies it slightly each week based on the previous weeks results. It is essentially a weighted average weekly rating.

The second method uses only a teams total average weekly differential and the teams strength of schedule to determine their rating for the upcoming week, similar to sagarin ratings. The strength of schedule takes into consideration the home field advantage in every game and is adjusted weekly. The method is more accurate as the amount of information going into each teams strength of schedule increases.

The two systems provide a good counterbalancing effect which when applied back to 2006 resulted in an average annual ATS winning percentage in all games of 51.5% with a narrow range of 51% (2006) and 53% (2009). In 5 star picks ATS the average winning percentage is 60% with a low of 52% (2006) and a high of 66% (2007). On average there are 36 - 5 star picks per year. The average straight up pick percentage for all games is 63% with a low of 57% (2006) and a high of 68% (2007).

Based on the base 2010 rating Mac Daddy recommends the following teams as good value bets to win the super bowl. They are a few of many handpicked by Mac Daddy from those which he determined to have a positive net present value based on his estimated odds of each winning the super bowl:

Indianapolis 7-1

Arizona 60-1

Jacksonville 100-1

Stay tuned for all this years 5 star picks and occasionally other information that seems interesting based on each teams weekly ratings and strength of schedule. Picks will generally be posted each Wednesday during the regular season and playoffs. 

SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS - February 7, 2010

Mac Daddy's Super Bowl Prediction
Indianapolis 31 - New Orleans 23

Mac Daddy of course relies strictly on the numbers which in this case only slightly favor Indy. Based on Mac Daddy’s past performance in any given game over the past 10 years this means Indy has about a 51.5% chance of covering. Therefore he was waiting for some sort of inspiration which would allow him to state a pick with confidence and fervor, and today he realized that time would never come and the Super Bowl was only two days away so he better just make a prediction and stick to it. How about that pitch for Indy? Don’t hurt yourself rushing out to go make your bet. Unfortunately that is just the way it goes, although the Super Bowl is the biggest game of the year it is only one game and if the line isn’t being moved into an unreasonable position there may not be much value in it. If you want a strong opinion, then here you go. I am very confident that the majority of the following topics will be mentioned at your Super Bowl party.

• Go Daddy
• Kim Kardashian
• Archie Manning
• Wednesdays episode of Lost
• The seven layer dip
• The Who
• Light beer vs. dark beer
• The length of the halftime show
• The original Super Bowl Shuffle
• Mike Ditka
• Hurricane Katrina
• Brad Pitt
• Harry Connick Jr.
• Debate as to the best show between 30 Rock, The Office, Community or Parks & Recreation
• Janet Jackson
• And for a long shot..... Turducken

Conference Championships 2009/2010

Mac Daddy likes but not loves both Minnesota and the Jets to cover. Minnesota has a good chance to win and a Jets victory is not completely improbable either the way that defense is playing. As far as the most intriguing matchup I like Minnesota and the Jets given the fact that Favre played on the Jets just last year (remember that), given that winner would either have the oldest or youngest QB to ever win a Super Bowl, given that I followed Mac Daddy's instructions to bet on both of them to win it all, and given that I want to Colts to pay for resting their players and might somewhat enjoy seeing Manning whine. The good thing is that there is no least intriguing matchup, Brees, Manning, Favre, and the Jets Defense would all make good story lines and make for an exciting Super Bowl.