NFL Mac Daddy Super Bowl Bets 2011

2011 Super Bowl

Green Bay -3 vs. Pittsburgh, O/U 45

Mac Daddy’s Super Bowl spread is anything but Super. It is Green Bay -1.7. Pretty much a no bet. However, I would advise against that. No bet on the Super Bowl is like no stick in a hockey game. It defeats the purpose. Therefore I would recommend the following:

Under 45 – It doesn’t matter that Super Bowls are usually higher scoring, and it doesn’t matter that they scored over 70 points in their game against each other last year. These defenses will scheme effectively and keep the game under. I should mention I am terrible at picking over/unders.

Super Bowl MVP, Ben Roethlisberger – Ever since his team won the Super Bowl against Seattle despite him Ben has a fairly good track record in the big games, and was surely runner up in the Super Bowl against Arizona. This game could solidify his place in history and I think he will take advantage of it. I should mention that I once declared that he was destined to be the best QB of all time a few games into his career, and that I have a Roethlisberger Jersey in my closet that I have not warn all year because I think there is a good possibility he is a dirt bag.

Pittsburgh to Win – See Super Bowl MVP.

NFL Conference Championships 2011

Mac Daddy's calculations are unfortunately exactly the same as the stated betting odds. His baseless recommendations are Chicago & Pittsburgh. For more info on the baselessness see his other blog post at:

http://iqcharts.blogspot.com/2011/01/diversion-of-week-nfl-conference.html

NFL ATS Picks Week 10, 2010

Record:  11-7

Week 10 Picks: 


Chicago +1.5 at  home vs. Minnesota: The vikings may have won last week but they still had to come back 14 points late against Arizona. Chicago may have barely won but they did it against the best 0-8 team ever.


Detroit +3 at Buffalo: The best 0-8 team ever is about to become the best 0-9 team ever. Detroit will not miss Stafford. They have been doing it without him all year, and by doing it I mean losing a lot but looking pretty good at it. These two teams are really meant for each other, do you think they can both lose?

Other:
I am kind of liking Cleveland +3 at home vs. the Jets as well, but just in case it was New England who just isn't that good, you could hedge that with a little action on Pittsburgh -4.5. Mac Daddy says don't listen to me and just stick to his picks. My online account agrees.

NFL ATS Picks & More Week 5 2010

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Week 2: 2-2

Week 3: 3-1

Week 4: 0-1

Total: 6-4

Week 5 Picks

Kansas City +8.5 at Indianapolis

NY Jets -4 at home vs. Minnesota

… & More

Mac Daddy has finally settled into the season, this week there are two official picks and no out of line non-picks, which are obviously out of line for a reason. I am not sure I like this week’s picks, but I think that bodes well for them. After all, I am a thinking man and Mac Daddy is a mindless machine and my experience tells me that thinking men are not very good sports bettors, especially those who think that statement does not apply to them.

Indianapolis may not be that bad even though they lost to Jacksonville, come on Indy really, you lost to Jacksonville, anyway, KC may just be pretty decent themselves. If that is the case 8.5 should be comfortably coverable. Minnesota is not that bad especially with the addition of Randy Moss, however, the Jets might just be that good and they are playing at home. What the hell, take them both, I will give Mac Daddy a beating on your behalf if they both lose. 

NFL ATS Picks & More Week 3 2010

Results

Week 1: 1-0

Week 2: 2-2

Total: 3-2

It looks like Mac Daddy must have had a little too much fun last year as his early season buzz seems to have lingered into week 3. Mac Daddy once again has four picks plus two out of range. One out of range pick for week 3 is Houston -3 at home vs Dallas. If Chicago is who we thought they were than then Dallas must really suck which means Houston should kill them. The second is Kansas City +2.5 at home vs. San Fran. As you will see in the picks below Mac Daddy thinks Monday nights almost win can be more explained by NO being overrated than SF underrated. Then again maybe he is just mad at them for losing the cover on that late game tying drive by SF.

Week 3 Picks

Atlanta +4 at New Orleans

Denver +6 at home vs. Indy

Cleveland +10.5 at Baltimore

Buffalo +14 at New England

Nuggets

Mac Daddy considers NO and KC as the worst two 2 win teams at 15^th and 17^th overall, and Minnesota and Cleveland the best No win teams at 13^th and 22^nd overall.  Indy, Atlanta and the Jets are considered the best 1 win teams, and Oakland, Arizona & Jacksonville are considered the worst.

ATS NFL Picks Week 15 2009

Week 15 Picks
Green Bay +2 at PITTSBURGH
WASHINGTON +3 vs. NY Giants

2-0 last week. Somebody has to actually be betting on Pittsburgh for these lines to continue to be so far off. New Flash: Pittsburgh is not who you thought they were. For some reason some people like to use year old data when they there is better more recent data available. i.e. Pittsburgh Won the Super Bowl vs. Pittsburgh is 6-7 with one of the easiest schedules in the league to date.

Strength of Schedule (1 is strongest, 32 is weakest)
Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 30
Washington 27, NY Giants 11

Team Rating (Rank)
Green Bay 23.5 (9), Pittsburgh 18 (23)
Washington 21 (15), NY Giants 20 (19)

NFL ATS Picks Week 14 2009

Picks:
CLEVELAND +10 v. Pittsburgh
Carolina +13.5 at NEW ENGLAND

Strength of Schedule Ranking:
Cleveland 5
Pittsburgh 30
Carolina 4
New England 10

Overal Team Ranking:
Cleveland 28
Pittsburgh 21
Carolina 20
New England 4

NFL Picks ATS Week 13 2009

The streak ended but still 1-1 isn't bad. One pick this week:

Week 13 Pick:
ATLANTA +5.5 vs. Philadelphia

Team Ratings:
Atlanta and Phili are right next to each other in the middle of the pack at 20.44 and 21.33, respectively. Note: Ratings and hence picks are based on historical performance so they do not take into consideration the fact that Matt Ryan is out. Generally I believe the impact of injuries is overrated.

Strength of Schedule Rank:
Atlanta 8, Philadelphia 25

Ranking Highlights:
New Orleans, Indy an Minnesota have separated themselves at the top with ratings of 30, 27, and 27 and St. Louis and Detroit round out the bottom with ratings of 11 and 10.

NFL Week 12 Picks ATS

3 in a row, hopefully tomorrow we will be giving thanks for increasing that to 5 thanks to these Thanksgiving specials:

WEEK 12 Picks:

Oakland +13.5 at DALLAS

DENVER +6.5 vs. NY Giants

NFL Picks ATS Week 11 2009

With last weeks cover by Cinci Mac Daddy has confirmed that he likes his new system. With this weeks picks he confirms that he hates Pittsburgh. This will be the third week in a row that he has picked against them... is somebody jealous. Not really, he is just a spreadsheet, I think it has more to do with their 6-3 record with one of the easiest schedules in the league thus far. My guess is that they will continue to be overrated by the betting public all season or at least until they start winning games convincingly enough to justify an elite rating. This weeks picks:

Week 11 Picks:
KANSAS CITY +10 vs. Pittsburgh
Atlanta +6.5 at NY GIANTS

Mac Daddy Strength of Schedules:
KC 23, Pittsburgh 28, Atlanta 3, NY Giants 19

Mac Daddy Team Ratings:
KC 15.12, Pittsburgh 22.12, Atlanta 21.59, NY Giants, 19.46

Highest Team Ratings:
NE 27.2, Cincinnati 26

Lowest Team Ratings:
Cleveland 12, Oakland 11.8

Week 9 ATS NFL Picks

A coin can come up heads 10 times in a row even though it is improbable, likewise a perfectly good system can have 5 losses in a row. Even though I fully I understand that I thought it would be more fun to just blow up the old spreadsheet and start anew which is what I have done. Let me introduce to you Mac Daddy (I like the name as is so I would prefer not to mess with it by adding a 2.0 or some crap like that, besides if I did that it would be more like Mac Daddy 20.0 by this time anyway). Anyway, without further ado for this week the new Mac Daddy with the same old name recommends the following:

DENVER +3 vs. Pittsburgh
Miami +10.5 at NEW ENGLAND

NFL ATS Picks Week 8 2009

That got ugly fast!! Minnesota got screwed by a bad call mixed with some bad luck at the end of the game, Tampa Bay was a mistake because the spreadsheet operator forgot to enter that it was at a neutral site, and the other two picks were just bad, especially Chicago, but I don't think anyone saw that coming. Are they really that bad?? We'll have to wait and see. I guess Mac Daddy's confidence was a little shaken by last weeks massacre because this week he only has one pick:

BUFFALO +3.5 vs. Houston

NFL Picks ATS Week 7 2009

Official picks are still 4-3 on the year, but there have been a few weeks with no picks such as last where we have to rely on my non-computer generated suggestions such as Detroit who couldn't even cover the 10 point teaser. Therefore Mac Daddy has adjusted his spreadsheet to create more picks. The new spreadsheet results in a historical winning percentage of 56% (since 2000) compared to 62% but picks about three times more games (on average 40 games per year). One obvious observation on this weeks picks is that Mac Daddy thinks the AFC is overrated. I guess he didn't watch the games last week, i.e. Oakland Phili, Washington Kansas City, or even Minnesota Baltimore. Oh well, who am I to question him, I'm the one who picked Detroit.

TAMPA BAY +15 vs. New England
Minnesota +4 at PITTSBURGH
Atlanta +4 at DALLAS
Chicago +1.5 at CINCINNATI

NFL Week 6 2009

Sorry for the late post this week (as if anyone actually reads this). Down to 4-3 on the year, with no official picks this week. No picks after losing two in a row is really the key advantage of following a system, whatever it may be. This system happens to be a spreadsheet which identifies when there is a lot of value in a line. By following the system you resist the urge to chase your money. Even though there were two loses in a row the system is still over .500 so there is no point in chasing money that was technically never even loss. We will wait until it goes 0-2 next week to do that. That being said if you were just in the mood for a good chase I might choose of these horses to jump on: Detroit +13.5, Cleveland +14, or JACKSONVILLE -10 (Saint Louis might just be the worst team of all time).

NFL Picks Week 1 2009

There was absolutely no thought that went into these picks. That is because they all come straight from the output of a spreadsheet which has been perfected over the past 10 years. By perfected I mean it has produced a record of approximately 60% over that period. Some of that may be the product of data mining so I feel more confident making the claim that each pick listed here has a 55% chance of winning. The estimated number of annual picks is about 20 so take advantage of these 4. The likely range of possible annual results is between one game under .500 and 10 games over. I used to look at the pick and then look stuff up to justify it for readers however, this year I plan to take a different approach. If anyone happens to stumble upon this blog and has even the most remote interest in analyzing NFL games against the spread, please use the comments section to tell me why I am right about one or more of these four dogs.

TAMPA BAY +6 vs. Dallas
Buffalo +10.5 at NEW ENGLAND
OAKLAND +9 vs. San Diego
Denver +4 at CINCINNATI