SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS - February 7, 2010

Mac Daddy's Super Bowl Prediction
Indianapolis 31 - New Orleans 23

Mac Daddy of course relies strictly on the numbers which in this case only slightly favor Indy. Based on Mac Daddy’s past performance in any given game over the past 10 years this means Indy has about a 51.5% chance of covering. Therefore he was waiting for some sort of inspiration which would allow him to state a pick with confidence and fervor, and today he realized that time would never come and the Super Bowl was only two days away so he better just make a prediction and stick to it. How about that pitch for Indy? Don’t hurt yourself rushing out to go make your bet. Unfortunately that is just the way it goes, although the Super Bowl is the biggest game of the year it is only one game and if the line isn’t being moved into an unreasonable position there may not be much value in it. If you want a strong opinion, then here you go. I am very confident that the majority of the following topics will be mentioned at your Super Bowl party.

• Go Daddy
• Kim Kardashian
• Archie Manning
• Wednesdays episode of Lost
• The seven layer dip
• The Who
• Light beer vs. dark beer
• The length of the halftime show
• The original Super Bowl Shuffle
• Mike Ditka
• Hurricane Katrina
• Brad Pitt
• Harry Connick Jr.
• Debate as to the best show between 30 Rock, The Office, Community or Parks & Recreation
• Janet Jackson
• And for a long shot..... Turducken

Conference Championships 2009/2010

Mac Daddy likes but not loves both Minnesota and the Jets to cover. Minnesota has a good chance to win and a Jets victory is not completely improbable either the way that defense is playing. As far as the most intriguing matchup I like Minnesota and the Jets given the fact that Favre played on the Jets just last year (remember that), given that winner would either have the oldest or youngest QB to ever win a Super Bowl, given that I followed Mac Daddy's instructions to bet on both of them to win it all, and given that I want to Colts to pay for resting their players and might somewhat enjoy seeing Manning whine. The good thing is that there is no least intriguing matchup, Brees, Manning, Favre, and the Jets Defense would all make good story lines and make for an exciting Super Bowl.

Divisional Playoff Picks 2009-2010

ATS in the Divisional Playoffs Mac Daddy likes New Orleans, Baltimore, Dallas & NY Jets, all with moderate confidence. In addition to who goes on to the next round this weeks games will determine; if New Orleans is in a slump or just came back down to earth, if Warner is truly capable of turning it off and on as they say or if they just had a good offense week vs Green Bay, if Indy is dumb for not looking at their own history to see that they should not rest players or I am dumb for thinking they are, if Baltimore is truly a complete team, who will will the Super Bowl, Dallas or Minnesota, and how many point San Diego can put up on the leagues best defense.

Belated Wild Card Picks Post

This is a day late, but here were the final rankings going into this week.

Team, Rating
New England, 26.77
Dallas, 26.62
Indianapolis, 24.65
New Orleans, 24.37
Minnesota, 24.27
San Diego, 24.18
Green Bay, 23.98
Baltimore, 23.95
NY Jets, 23.00
Arizona, 21.16
Philadelphia, 20.98
Cincinnati, 20.83

As you can see the worst two teams in the playoffs were eliminated yesterday and Mac Daddy's picks to go to the Super Bowl are New England and Dallas. However, the rating doesn't take into consideration the injury to Welker, so depending on how that affects NE, Indy could take their place. Today Mac Daddy likes GB and NE. The Jets are only rated 23, but their defense has been playing great resulting in a lot of hype causing the odds to win the Super Bowl to go from 50-1 to open the week to 30-1 before the start of the Cinci game. Mac Daddy meant to take it at 50-1 and still took it after it fell to 30-1. The best teams to miss the playoffs follow, all of which were considered better than Cincinnati, Philadephia, and Arizona:

Team, Rating
Atlanta, 24.86
San Francisco, 22.77
Carolina, 22.53
Pittsburgh, 22.31
Houston, 21.82

NFL WEEK 17 Picks ATS 2009

Week 17 Picks
New England +8 at HOUSTON
NY Giants +9 at MINNESOTA

Week 17 Picks - Current Rankings (Rank)
New England - 28 (1)
Houston - 23 (10)
NY Giants - 19.5 (19)
Minnesota - 20 (17)

Week 17 Picks - Strength of Schedule (Rank)
New England - 21 (7)
Houston - 19.5 (23)
NY Giants - 21 (6)
Minnesota - 18.5 (30)

Pick Commentary
Week 17 picks are always a bit more risky causing me to withhold Mac Daddy suggestions, but even with the unpredictability of Week 17 I still like these two. New England is now the number 1 ranked team by the system and doesn't have a history of taking weeks off. Minnesota had reason to and badly wanted to win last week in Chicago too.... are we adjusting spreads by 9 points for home field these days? Mac Daddy also wanted to throw out the following picks for some possible side action.

A Few Fun Favorites
DALLAS -3 vs Philadelphia, CLEVELAND -1.5 vs Jacksonville, Chicago -3 at DETROIT

Top 4 Teams by Current Rank
1) New England
2) Dallas
3) San Diego
4) Indianapolis

Check back in next week to get the complete list of ratings for all playoff teams, plus the best of those who failed to make it.

NFL Week 16 Picks ATS

Baltimore +2.5 at PITTSBURGH

Pittsburgh's rating went up a lot after last weeks win, but they still are overrated. I actually hope they win this week because it I think they playoffs would be more fun with them in it, however, their has been little evidence to suggest that they can beat Baltimore who is playing very well right now. You can say Baltimore is doing it against inferior opponents like Chicago, but then again the Bears already beat Pittsburgh this year.

ATS NFL Picks Week 15 2009

Week 15 Picks
Green Bay +2 at PITTSBURGH
WASHINGTON +3 vs. NY Giants

2-0 last week. Somebody has to actually be betting on Pittsburgh for these lines to continue to be so far off. New Flash: Pittsburgh is not who you thought they were. For some reason some people like to use year old data when they there is better more recent data available. i.e. Pittsburgh Won the Super Bowl vs. Pittsburgh is 6-7 with one of the easiest schedules in the league to date.

Strength of Schedule (1 is strongest, 32 is weakest)
Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 30
Washington 27, NY Giants 11

Team Rating (Rank)
Green Bay 23.5 (9), Pittsburgh 18 (23)
Washington 21 (15), NY Giants 20 (19)