NFL Picks ATS Week 11 2009

With last weeks cover by Cinci Mac Daddy has confirmed that he likes his new system. With this weeks picks he confirms that he hates Pittsburgh. This will be the third week in a row that he has picked against them... is somebody jealous. Not really, he is just a spreadsheet, I think it has more to do with their 6-3 record with one of the easiest schedules in the league thus far. My guess is that they will continue to be overrated by the betting public all season or at least until they start winning games convincingly enough to justify an elite rating. This weeks picks:

Week 11 Picks:
KANSAS CITY +10 vs. Pittsburgh
Atlanta +6.5 at NY GIANTS

Mac Daddy Strength of Schedules:
KC 23, Pittsburgh 28, Atlanta 3, NY Giants 19

Mac Daddy Team Ratings:
KC 15.12, Pittsburgh 22.12, Atlanta 21.59, NY Giants, 19.46

Highest Team Ratings:
NE 27.2, Cincinnati 26

Lowest Team Ratings:
Cleveland 12, Oakland 11.8

NFL Week 10 Picks ATS

One and one with the new system last week. One of the changes to the system included a more robust strength of schedule ranking. At this point in the season according to the Mac Daddy Strength of Schedule ranking (MD SOS) the strongest five schedules in order are: Miami, Cleveland, Atlanta, Jets & Tennessee. The weakest schedules in order are: Washington, Phili, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Dallas. With this weeks pick I have indicated the respective MD SOS and the Overall Team Rating of each team.

Cincinnati +7 at Pittsburgh
MD SOS (rank): Cincinnati 7, Pittsburgh 22
Overall Team Rating: Cincinnati 25.78, Pittsburgh 24.45

MD SOS and Overall Team Rank comparable to Jeff Sagarin NFL ratings:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm?loc=interstitialskip


The Mac Daddy ratings are comparable to Sagarin's pure points, only they are a hybrid of pure points and a weighted average rating giving more weight toward recently played games.

Week 9 ATS NFL Picks

A coin can come up heads 10 times in a row even though it is improbable, likewise a perfectly good system can have 5 losses in a row. Even though I fully I understand that I thought it would be more fun to just blow up the old spreadsheet and start anew which is what I have done. Let me introduce to you Mac Daddy (I like the name as is so I would prefer not to mess with it by adding a 2.0 or some crap like that, besides if I did that it would be more like Mac Daddy 20.0 by this time anyway). Anyway, without further ado for this week the new Mac Daddy with the same old name recommends the following:

DENVER +3 vs. Pittsburgh
Miami +10.5 at NEW ENGLAND

NFL ATS Picks Week 8 2009

That got ugly fast!! Minnesota got screwed by a bad call mixed with some bad luck at the end of the game, Tampa Bay was a mistake because the spreadsheet operator forgot to enter that it was at a neutral site, and the other two picks were just bad, especially Chicago, but I don't think anyone saw that coming. Are they really that bad?? We'll have to wait and see. I guess Mac Daddy's confidence was a little shaken by last weeks massacre because this week he only has one pick:

BUFFALO +3.5 vs. Houston

NFL Picks ATS Week 7 2009

Official picks are still 4-3 on the year, but there have been a few weeks with no picks such as last where we have to rely on my non-computer generated suggestions such as Detroit who couldn't even cover the 10 point teaser. Therefore Mac Daddy has adjusted his spreadsheet to create more picks. The new spreadsheet results in a historical winning percentage of 56% (since 2000) compared to 62% but picks about three times more games (on average 40 games per year). One obvious observation on this weeks picks is that Mac Daddy thinks the AFC is overrated. I guess he didn't watch the games last week, i.e. Oakland Phili, Washington Kansas City, or even Minnesota Baltimore. Oh well, who am I to question him, I'm the one who picked Detroit.

TAMPA BAY +15 vs. New England
Minnesota +4 at PITTSBURGH
Atlanta +4 at DALLAS
Chicago +1.5 at CINCINNATI

NFL Week 6 2009

Sorry for the late post this week (as if anyone actually reads this). Down to 4-3 on the year, with no official picks this week. No picks after losing two in a row is really the key advantage of following a system, whatever it may be. This system happens to be a spreadsheet which identifies when there is a lot of value in a line. By following the system you resist the urge to chase your money. Even though there were two loses in a row the system is still over .500 so there is no point in chasing money that was technically never even loss. We will wait until it goes 0-2 next week to do that. That being said if you were just in the mood for a good chase I might choose of these horses to jump on: Detroit +13.5, Cleveland +14, or JACKSONVILLE -10 (Saint Louis might just be the worst team of all time).

NFL Picks ATS Week 5 2009

Tampa Bay +15 at PHILADELPHIA